Cautious Batsmen, Nervous Bowlers
Commentators often talk about players planning out an over. A batsmen may want to see off the first couple deliveries, and a bowler may try to keep it tight off the last ball of the over. It is interesting to look at the actual data behind those strategies. Using ball-by-ball data from the Against the Spin data repository, we can look at run-scoring and wicket-taking across the six deliveries of each over.
There is some evidence that batsmen may score less of the first ball of the over, possibly trying to be cautious against the new bowler. For their part, bowlers take some time to settle down, conceding a significantly higher number of wides & no balls of the first delivery of the over. Batsman are also more likely to take a single of the last ball of an over, presumably in an attempt to keep the strike.
Batsmen are less likely to hit the first ball of a bowler’s over for a boundary than they are to hit subsequent balls to the fence.
The third ball of an over has a higher likelihood of taking a wicket, though this may just be a statistical fluke.
This graph is perhaps the most interesting. The average runs conceded in no balls & wides (these are the extras where the bowler is at fault) is significantly higher off the first ball of an over, compared to the middle of the over. This suggests that bowlers may be a little tight at the beginning of an over, resulting in overstepping, or a wild delivery.
There is some evidence that batsmen may score less of the first ball of the over, possibly trying to be cautious against the new bowler. For their part, bowlers take some time to settle down, conceding a significantly higher number of wides & no balls of the first delivery of the over. Batsman are also more likely to take a single of the last ball of an over, presumably in an attempt to keep the strike.
Batsmen are less likely to hit the first ball of a bowler’s over for a boundary than they are to hit subsequent balls to the fence.
The third ball of an over has a higher likelihood of taking a wicket, though this may just be a statistical fluke.
This graph is perhaps the most interesting. The average runs conceded in no balls & wides (these are the extras where the bowler is at fault) is significantly higher off the first ball of an over, compared to the middle of the over. This suggests that bowlers may be a little tight at the beginning of an over, resulting in overstepping, or a wild delivery.
